Monday, April 24, 2006

The Bombs In Dahab: An Icing On The Region’s Cake

A few hours ago, an orchestrated terrorist attack occurred in the small tourist Red Sea resort in Sinai, Egypt called Dahab. The resort is known for its tranquility and laid-back atmosphere, a lot less commercial than Sharm El-Sheikh, which was the victim of terrorist bombings last summer.

No organization has taken responsibility yet, but there have been a few coincidences. The bombings come during the Christian Easter celebration and moreover, they come in light of recent attacks against Coptic Christians in Alexandria when a group of fanatic Muslims entered churches and started a stabbing spree. In addition, they also come in light of a recent diatribe by Osama bin Laden against the West, arguing that the Western world has started a war against Islam. Bin Laden now groups Western citizens, their military as well as their governments as the ‘enemy’ – this is extremely troublesome to say the least as there is no differentiation between innocent civilians (i.e. tourists) and army members.

It is difficult at this point to point fingers at a specific group and as the events start unfolding, the perpetrators will surface. However, a few important conclusions can be inferred from the bombings in Taba, Sharm-El Sheikh and Dahab which have all occurred over the last 18 months.

1) The bombings are targeted against foreigners, symbols of infidelity in the eyes of the terrorists. The perpetrators are following the ‘fatwa’ issued by Osama bin Laden which calls for the jihad against the West and non-Muslims. The terrorists seek to rid Arab/Muslim lands of impurities and proliferate Islam using all means necessary.

2) The bombings and the terrorist organizations behind it are trying to instigate a social upheaval within Egypt’s borders. In fact, with the recent attacks against Coptic Christians in Alexandria, it seems that such bombings are a way of sparking a civil war. This might only be speculative at this point but in order to start a revolutionary reaction, the proletariat in Egypt is the group to target. This has certainly been the case with the recent attacks against Christians in Alexandria.

3) The whole region has become a bloodbath for terrorism, violence and absolute ignorance. Iraq has become a complete war-zone, Israel/Palestine continues to be a very unstable and a politically uncertain area (in light of the rise of Hamas and Kadima) and Iran is asking for military attacks from the United States and its allies.

The situation in the region has become extremely delicate with acts of violence sending their repercussions globally. Oil has reached a high of $75 primarily due to Iran’s uncertain and supposed malicious intentions with its nuclear enrichment program. The US-led war in Iraq has taken its toll with foreign forces unable to control and stop the rise in sectarian violence which has arguably led to a civil war and more innocent Iraqis and American soldiers continue to die. Bin Laden’s ‘invisible’ preaching has caused immense frustration for people – Muslim, non-Muslim, Westerners and Arabs – as they are reminded that threats are imminent and deadly.

Is there a threshold? Is the region waiting to implode?

11 Comments:

Blogger Rambling Hal said...

This is a great analytical post - wonderful summary. If you don't mind, I'd like to link to this post of yours from my own post on what happened in Dahab tonight - I just reported instead of analyzed like yourself. However, the most people that read this, the better!

Just one thing...in your first conclusion, you are correct in stating that these terrorists are seeking to rid Arab/Muslim land of impurities, and they claim that they are targeting foreigners (horrific as it is, not condoning it, but just stating). However, they're killing Arabs and Muslims instead, where at least 18 out of the supposed 21 dead (the death toll is perhaps higher) are Egyptians, specifically young Egpptians enjoying a vacation on their spring break. Of course, regardless of who had died, this is disgusting, but do they not realize how much their terrorist plans are backfiring? Do they have no consideration of the tourism economies they are affecting in countries in the region which depend solely on the tourism industry? DO THEY NOT REALIZE?!?!

Forget it, I'm asking stupid questions I know, I'm just so frustrated!

4:55 PM  
Blogger The Egyptian Observer said...

@Rambling Hal. Thank you for your candid remarks and please feel free to link to my post.

Yes, unfortunately and to the utter idiocy of the perpetrators, they managed to kill almost all Egyptians.

However, reading between the lines, the terrorist attacks have actually not backfired. The magnitude of this attack was not as large as the recent Sharm El-Sheikh, London or Amman bombings and of course definitely not as close as those of Madrid. BUT, nonetheless, they still sent a message across - that threats are imminent.

The media sensationalizes the event, EXACTLY what the terrorists want. The perpetrators have not been announced yet however these bombings will give them more credibility.

A credibility that Hosni Mubarak and other Arab leaders should REALLY start to take seriously. Egypt's already tarnished tourism industry is now destroyed and moreover the chances to rid the region of outcast/extremist groups is becoming slimmer by the day.

Extremism, ignorance and absolute idiocy plagues the Middle East. The events that have unfolded over the last few months have proven to the world the complete backwardness of the Arab world - worse yet of Muslims. Unfortunately, the wrong individuals are representing Islam and those who are (such as Osama Bin Laden) have taken great pride in instigating a so-called 'Jihad' against Zionism and Westernism.

Arab governments need to cooperate transparently to fight the root of the problem - this will be their only solution - hunt down extremism before it gets out of hand and start introducing secular ideas in to society.

8:17 PM  
Blogger Mark Daniels said...

Thanks for this well-written piece. I followed Hal's link to this post.

I think Hal makes an interesting point. The bombers now seem to be targeting other Arabs and Muslims...or at least, seeing them as necessary "collateral damage" associated with their campaign against the non-Muslim West.

8:53 PM  
Blogger Mark Daniels said...

Thanks for this well-written piece. I followed Hal's link to this post.

I think Hal makes an interesting point. The bombers now seem to be targeting other Arabs and Muslims...or at least, seeing them as necessary "collateral damage" associated with their campaign against the non-Muslim West.

8:53 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Hi EO.
"Arab governments need to cooperate transparently to fight the root of the problem - this will be their only solution - hunt down extremism before it gets out of hand and start introducing secular ideas in to society."

We all hope that the societies in the ME will become more secular. But are there any signs that points in that direction? Is it possible? Is it in any of the Arab governments interests? Could they if they would?

Best regards.

6:23 AM  
Blogger The Egyptian Observer said...

@mark daniels. Unfortunately, the terrorists target list has lengthened to include Muslims (most Egyptians in this case) who have 'conceded' to the foreign 'infidel' tourists. Thus, in their books, they are no better than the foreign tourist themselves.

For example, a terorist will not differentiate between a foreigner drinking alcohol or the Muslim/Arab/Egyptian bartender serving him. Both of these acts are considered sinful in Islam and thus as the terrorists are motivated by 'Jihad,' violence is a way to rid the Arab lands of any degree of antithesis of Islam.

They are sending their message across loud and clear - Westerners should not intervene in Arab affairs and Arabs should not concede to them whatsoever. It is quite a sad reality that a civil discussion cannot be used to infuse a sense of rationality in to the perpetrators' minds. One cannot negotiate with them and merely explain that such acts are tarnishing the economy as well as starving Egyptian MUSLIM families who are trying to 'survive' (not even 'live' their life).

8:18 AM  
Blogger The Egyptian Observer said...

@aliandra. Al Jazeera SHOULD STOP but it won't because this is Osama Bin Laden and Al-Qaeda's only conduit in to world. Al Jazeera is a voice, just like any other media station.

Bin Laden cares less about the attention per se. In retrospect there have only been a handful of audio and video tapes released through Al Jazeera. His words are reassuring the Western world that threats are imminent and they only need to follow the news to see the bloodshed.

The bloodshed that needs to occur because of an anti-Muslim war initiated by the West. The interesting observation here is that extremists such as Bin Laden and his followers are 'archaic' in their references. There is a sense of mimicking the Middle Ages or even the ages of the Prophet Mohammad (PBUH) where he had the mission of spreading Islam and introducing its ideas. Bin Laden believes he is CONTINUING what the Prophet left of - JIHAD. However he is continuing it in a violent, vile and absolutely WRONG way.

Converts to Islam should be made fully CONVINCED of their action and should never be forced (or better VIOLENTLY obligated) to accept the religion.

Unforunately, an extremist organization has put a twist on this thought and have created their own version.

8:28 AM  
Blogger The Egyptian Observer said...

@odin lever. You ask very poignant and important questions.

In all honesty at this point, given the people in power as well as the economic conditions of the countries, it is NOT in any of the Arab governments interests to introduce secularism.

Why?

1) Religion is a way to acquiese the poor. Most Arab countries are in dire poverty - with an extremely large proletariat, a minisule bourgeoisie and a small aristocracy - and thus they need the poor to understand that their respective goverment is not separating the church from the state, in fact they are equating them. They would like to see their presidents idolize the Prophet Mohammad (PBUH) and tell them that Islam is the solution (this was clearly seen in Egypt's last election with the Muslim Brotherhoods unexpected leveraging of political power).

2) Many Arab countries operate under a very hierarchial, if not completely bigoted system. The people in power abuse their positions by 'fooling' their poor populations and use corruption to profit (it is not coincidental that most of the new ministers in Egypt are young businessmen). Thus by introducing secularism, they are allowing people the opportunity to 'think' for themselves, question their beliefs and possibly instigate a revolution.

3) If it is GENUINELY in the interests of Arab governments to become secular, then the problems of poverty and economic conditions needs to be adhered to before such ideas (and those of democracy) are introduced.

Secularism is not IMPOSSIBLE however the RIGHT people need to be in power - moderate, intellectual, progressive Muslims - for any change to take place. Moreover, economic and social conditions need to improve drastically as well as a general level of literacy and education. If 50% of the Egyptian population cannot read or write then how could one possibly explain to them ideas of democracy, civility and let alone secularism?

8:42 AM  
Blogger Rambling Hal said...

I have really enjoyed following these comments, and can't thank you enough, EO, for providing this forum for thought...very interesting. Sad, depressing even, but interesting to see from this perspective. Thanks!

4:14 PM  
Blogger The Egyptian Observer said...

@Sara. I am not confining my analysis to al-Qaeda or Osama Bin Laden nor am I saying that he was the one responsible for the attacks per se. However, his threatening presence in the world is an 'inspiration' for wanna-be terrorists and an 'inspiration' for devising more attacks - there is certainly no doubt about that. For example, nor Hamas or the Muslim Brotherhood agree with Al Qaeda's philosophy or their so-called Jihad against the West. However, that does not mean that Al Qaeda's schemes are not encouraging other terrorist organizations to stir up matters themselves.

In fact, it turns out that it is PROBABLY even more powerful to target Muslims/Arabs/Egyptians. For example, it seems that the London bombers struck in areas which were populated by many Muslim immigrants (predominantly South East Asian or Arab - such as Edgware Road). It seems that they are also trying to send a message to Muslims living abroad that they have by de facto betrayed their countries by leaving and working for the 'enemy.'

Similarly, anyone cooperating with the 'enemy' such as the innocent vendors and shop owners in all the Red Sea resorts would be considered infidels, allowing for foreign malice to infect 'God's Muslim lands.'

I am not sure whether you are hinting that all these attacks have been the work of Israelis by alluding to the fact they have warned their citizens time and time again not to visit the Sinai. I think that would be an absurd assumption, Israel is at peace with Egypt and they are very thankful for the status quo. In fact, it would make more sense that the perpetrators are Islamists who are still dwelling on the peace agreements signed by Egypt and Israel in the late 1970s and would like to retaliate.

The Ministry of Interior is doing an appalling job at managing such crises and it is VERY easy to point the finger on any terrorist organization that exists. In fact, many organizations like to be held responsible so as to boast their reputation and reinforce their influence for inflicting damage and receiving concessions.

Like Hamas, Fatah or Al Qaeda, whoever is behind these attacks should speak up and send their ultimatum across so that the Egyptian government listens. It will not be as simple as: 'Do not allow tourists to visit Egypt,' but it will more philosophical and complex of a statement.

It is not a coincidence that all three attacks fell on momentous holidays. This MIGHT imply that the same organization is behind all the attacks however at the same time, it might also imply that whoever is orchestrating the attacks is smart enough to use dates which would host a larger than average group of people - thus inflicting more damage and in turn sending a more powerful message.

2:24 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

EO,

I have read your analysis. While I agree with the majority of it, I have a couple of observations:

A. with the benefit of hindsight, 2 days after the attack, no group has declared its responsibility for it; which goes against the usual OBL franchise style of proudly claiming responsibility for such events.

B. Given point A, it seems unlikely that an Al-Qaeda franchise was responsible for the attacks. I would instead hypothesize that it's been planned and orchestrated by a very small local group of people, most probably Bedouin. This could be the result, as a lot of analysts have already pointed out, of the extreme measures that Egyptian security imposed on bedouin families following the previous bombings; where mass arrests, torture, and wrongful convictions took place (according to Human Rights Watch).

C. In response to your "it seems that such bombings are a way of sparking a civil war", I think it has nothing to do with Egyptian Christians, and is completely unconnected with the previous incident in Alex. Terrorists hit on vacations because they know that a lot of people (muslim, christian, and foreigner)are in hotels and hence they can inflict maximum casualities. The terrorists who had the sophistication to go past all the security posts, must've known that there would be a sizeable muslim presence (as was later shown by the published names of victims in Al-Ahram). Futhermore, there has been demonstrations following the bomb by Egyptians, muslims and christians alike, against terrorism. In fact, this bombing has an opposite effect from instigating a civil war: it shows muslims that there are radicals amongst their midst who not only think Christians are infidels, but lump with them all moderate muslims as well. For Christians, it shows that church attackers are a radical fringe, and do not represent mainstream tolerant Islam, which they have lived with for centuries.

12:27 PM  

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