Embracing Change In Israel: Going Kadima or Backwards?
So far 57% of registered Israeli voters have headed over to the voting polls. The clock is ticking quickly. Israelis vote today with the newly elected Hamas in power and with the absence of Ariel Sharon. The Palestinian parliament approved the Hamas-led government after a 71-36 vote and Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh’s government will be sworn in this coming Thursday.
Thus, what should one expect?
Pre-election polls have shown that the nascent Kadima (which means forward in Hebrew) party formed by Ariel Sharon and currently led by acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has an edge over the traditional power holders Likud and Labor.
Historically, no main right or left-wing party in Israel has been able to gain majority seats in Knesset (at least 61 out of 120) and governments have always been a coalition of both. If Kadima wins, it is likely that the government will remain the same. Nonetheless, it will be a turning point in Israeli politics. The outcome will produce a platform which is neither completely dovish nor completely hawkish.
What does a political circle with Hamas and Kadima in power hold for the future of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict?
The speculated dynamic between both parties presents a very interesting outlook. This is the situation: given that Hamas is already in power, from a moderate Israeli perspective, Kadima’s possible rise to power will make Israel face backward and not forward.
Why?
From the eyes of Israelis, Hamas is an occupation party which represents a return to the traditional and original values of the post-1948 war – in other words Hamas is bad news. What exacerbates the situation is that on paper, Kadima is a party of territorial withdrawals and disengagements where Hamas (on paper and from history) is the clear opposite; aggressive, non-negotiating, non-withdrawing and intransigent.
From the eyes of Palestinians, Hamas is the best thing that has happened in recent years. With a swarming popular vote, Hamas beat the old and corrupt Fatah party which has been unable to attain to Palestinian demands since 1948. Hamas is aggressive and determined to gain back territory and remove the Israeli occupiers. Moreover, they refuse to acknowledge Israel and use Islam as the solution to the problem. Kadima’s rise to power is ideal for Hamas since they do not have to deal with the conservatism of the Likud party (under ex-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu) but with a party willing to attain to their concessions (on paper only at this point) and "give in."
The compatibility is iron-clad at this point. However, both Hamas and Kadima will stay on their guard. On the one hand, Hamas have quickly learned that using rhetoric of violence and terrorism will only exacerbate their chances of gaining international recognition as well as ultimately gaining the concessions they and the Palestinian people seek. Moreover, the recent aid boycotts by the West as well as some Arab countries could lead Hamas in to financial catastrophe – a crisis they seek to avoid. In essence, Hamas might end up toning its voice down and putting up a more diplomatic-friendly face.
On other hand, Kadima will remain skeptical and cautious of Hamas’ intentions and their methods of turning a blind-eye to their militant faction (which have been responsible for a plethora of terrorist acts since the start of the quarrel in 1948). In essence, Kadima might want to portray a more hawkish and less lenient attitude towards Hamas.
This potential tit-for-tat will potentially lead both parties to play the uncertainty game which by de facto assumes the irrationality of the opposing party. This will in fact lead both Hamas and Kadima to think rationally of their decisions, actions, rhetoric and intentions.
The voting is in progress and so the speculation in this article could be near infallible or completely futile – time will tell.
Thus, what should one expect?
Pre-election polls have shown that the nascent Kadima (which means forward in Hebrew) party formed by Ariel Sharon and currently led by acting Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has an edge over the traditional power holders Likud and Labor.
Historically, no main right or left-wing party in Israel has been able to gain majority seats in Knesset (at least 61 out of 120) and governments have always been a coalition of both. If Kadima wins, it is likely that the government will remain the same. Nonetheless, it will be a turning point in Israeli politics. The outcome will produce a platform which is neither completely dovish nor completely hawkish.
What does a political circle with Hamas and Kadima in power hold for the future of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict?
The speculated dynamic between both parties presents a very interesting outlook. This is the situation: given that Hamas is already in power, from a moderate Israeli perspective, Kadima’s possible rise to power will make Israel face backward and not forward.
Why?
From the eyes of Israelis, Hamas is an occupation party which represents a return to the traditional and original values of the post-1948 war – in other words Hamas is bad news. What exacerbates the situation is that on paper, Kadima is a party of territorial withdrawals and disengagements where Hamas (on paper and from history) is the clear opposite; aggressive, non-negotiating, non-withdrawing and intransigent.
From the eyes of Palestinians, Hamas is the best thing that has happened in recent years. With a swarming popular vote, Hamas beat the old and corrupt Fatah party which has been unable to attain to Palestinian demands since 1948. Hamas is aggressive and determined to gain back territory and remove the Israeli occupiers. Moreover, they refuse to acknowledge Israel and use Islam as the solution to the problem. Kadima’s rise to power is ideal for Hamas since they do not have to deal with the conservatism of the Likud party (under ex-Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu) but with a party willing to attain to their concessions (on paper only at this point) and "give in."
The compatibility is iron-clad at this point. However, both Hamas and Kadima will stay on their guard. On the one hand, Hamas have quickly learned that using rhetoric of violence and terrorism will only exacerbate their chances of gaining international recognition as well as ultimately gaining the concessions they and the Palestinian people seek. Moreover, the recent aid boycotts by the West as well as some Arab countries could lead Hamas in to financial catastrophe – a crisis they seek to avoid. In essence, Hamas might end up toning its voice down and putting up a more diplomatic-friendly face.
On other hand, Kadima will remain skeptical and cautious of Hamas’ intentions and their methods of turning a blind-eye to their militant faction (which have been responsible for a plethora of terrorist acts since the start of the quarrel in 1948). In essence, Kadima might want to portray a more hawkish and less lenient attitude towards Hamas.
This potential tit-for-tat will potentially lead both parties to play the uncertainty game which by de facto assumes the irrationality of the opposing party. This will in fact lead both Hamas and Kadima to think rationally of their decisions, actions, rhetoric and intentions.
The voting is in progress and so the speculation in this article could be near infallible or completely futile – time will tell.
posted by The Egyptian Observer at 1:26 PM
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