Bush’s Approval Ratings: Does He Manage to Control Them?
Since 9/11, both Osama Bin Laden and his right hand man Ayman Al Zawahiri have used privately recorded video footage to communicate with the Western world. These videos intend to give the leaders of the Western world words of advice as well as act as a conduit to disseminate and issue fatwas. Their videos have been aired on Al-Jazeerah at very strategic moments.
For example, Bin Laden surfaced on video four days before the US presidential elections. His message (although not drastically different than before) was for the US to change its behavior with regards to the Muslim world. He informed the American people that, “your security (US population) is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al-Qaeda,” he warned, “your security is in your own hands.” Bush believes that the Bin Laden’s tape helped him win the presidential election. The US population (swayed by the media’s influence) was reaffirmed that terrorist threats are still imminent and that Bin Laden is still at large.
Bush used the war on terror to fuel his campaign for presidency. This seemed to be a perfect fit: Bush seeks to hunt down Bin Laden and Bin Laden seeks to attack the West and especially the United States. Given these complementarities, does the Bush Administration know the location of Bin Laden and are waiting for the “right” time to strike?
What is this “right” time? Bush was fortunate to be elected for a second term, giving him another four years in office and a total of eight years. With Bush’s current approval rating at 38%, there is much more he and his administration need to do to redeem themselves. The war in Iraq has taken a wrong turn and sectarian violence has exploded in recent weeks. The aftermath of hurricane Katrina revealed the inefficiencies of the world’s strongest economic powerhouse and Bush’s handling of other domestic affairs have been shy of successful.
The “right” time will be the near end of his term. Once he captures Bin Laden months before his resignation, the American people and the world will remember his administration as an incredible success (regardless of any hiccups during his time in office). This is a de facto nature of the public’s reaction. History has shown us that leaders use positive news as a political tool to distract the public from any domestic or foreign woes (for example, in 1935 Benito Mussolini invaded Ethiopia in a clear act of bigotry in order to distract the public from Italy’s beleaguered economic situation). After Saddam’s capture, Bush’s approval ratings soared and he vowed to capture Bin Laden soon thereafter. This removed some of the doubts which plagued the minds of skeptics who believed that the Iraq war was a complete mistake.
The reason why the Bush Administration has not captured Bin Laden yet is because they are using his propaganda and harangue against the United States to fuel further support for their platform and its goal to fight terrorism.
Iraq saw the capture of Saddam but an increase in sectarian violence and a complete mess of the socio-political system. Thus, Saddam’s decapitation attack has not revolutionized internal Iraqi affairs nor has it reduced the chances of civil war. In fact observers are rethinking about whether Saddam’s dictatorship was preferable. On the contrary his capture increased Bush’s approval rating during that period and has led people to believe the legitimacy of the US-led invasion.
In essence, the case of Al-Qaeda is similar to that of Iraq. On the one hand, Al-Qaeda has its symbols: Osama Bin Laden and Ayman Al Zawahiri. They are Al-Qaeda’s visual connotations. However, Al-Qaeda is a decentralized terrorist network stretching all over the globe. If either’ of the two leaders are decapitated, Al-Qaeda will still prevail and continue its operations. However their capture will bring rejoice to Americans and the West, primarily because of their symbolism.
Their capture will cause Bush’s approval ratings to sky-rocket and again only for a temporal period. Thus, that is why Bin Laden’s capture will take place a short time before Bush’s term ends. The proceeding administration will still continue to deal with Al-Qaeda and terrorist attacks but they will be thankful for the detainment of Bin Laden.
The US government claims that they cannot pinpoint the exact location of Bin Laden. They only manage to state that he is probably hiding in the rugged terrains between the borders of Afghanistan and Pakistan or that he is still in Tora Bora. Whether the US government is concealing information from the public is subject to much debate. Sooner or later, such conspiracy theories will be either confirmed or refuted.
For now, there is reason to believe that delaying Bin Laden’s capture is a strategic decision taken by the Bush Administration.
For example, Bin Laden surfaced on video four days before the US presidential elections. His message (although not drastically different than before) was for the US to change its behavior with regards to the Muslim world. He informed the American people that, “your security (US population) is not in the hands of Kerry or Bush or al-Qaeda,” he warned, “your security is in your own hands.” Bush believes that the Bin Laden’s tape helped him win the presidential election. The US population (swayed by the media’s influence) was reaffirmed that terrorist threats are still imminent and that Bin Laden is still at large.
Bush used the war on terror to fuel his campaign for presidency. This seemed to be a perfect fit: Bush seeks to hunt down Bin Laden and Bin Laden seeks to attack the West and especially the United States. Given these complementarities, does the Bush Administration know the location of Bin Laden and are waiting for the “right” time to strike?
What is this “right” time? Bush was fortunate to be elected for a second term, giving him another four years in office and a total of eight years. With Bush’s current approval rating at 38%, there is much more he and his administration need to do to redeem themselves. The war in Iraq has taken a wrong turn and sectarian violence has exploded in recent weeks. The aftermath of hurricane Katrina revealed the inefficiencies of the world’s strongest economic powerhouse and Bush’s handling of other domestic affairs have been shy of successful.
The “right” time will be the near end of his term. Once he captures Bin Laden months before his resignation, the American people and the world will remember his administration as an incredible success (regardless of any hiccups during his time in office). This is a de facto nature of the public’s reaction. History has shown us that leaders use positive news as a political tool to distract the public from any domestic or foreign woes (for example, in 1935 Benito Mussolini invaded Ethiopia in a clear act of bigotry in order to distract the public from Italy’s beleaguered economic situation). After Saddam’s capture, Bush’s approval ratings soared and he vowed to capture Bin Laden soon thereafter. This removed some of the doubts which plagued the minds of skeptics who believed that the Iraq war was a complete mistake.
The reason why the Bush Administration has not captured Bin Laden yet is because they are using his propaganda and harangue against the United States to fuel further support for their platform and its goal to fight terrorism.
Iraq saw the capture of Saddam but an increase in sectarian violence and a complete mess of the socio-political system. Thus, Saddam’s decapitation attack has not revolutionized internal Iraqi affairs nor has it reduced the chances of civil war. In fact observers are rethinking about whether Saddam’s dictatorship was preferable. On the contrary his capture increased Bush’s approval rating during that period and has led people to believe the legitimacy of the US-led invasion.
In essence, the case of Al-Qaeda is similar to that of Iraq. On the one hand, Al-Qaeda has its symbols: Osama Bin Laden and Ayman Al Zawahiri. They are Al-Qaeda’s visual connotations. However, Al-Qaeda is a decentralized terrorist network stretching all over the globe. If either’ of the two leaders are decapitated, Al-Qaeda will still prevail and continue its operations. However their capture will bring rejoice to Americans and the West, primarily because of their symbolism.
Their capture will cause Bush’s approval ratings to sky-rocket and again only for a temporal period. Thus, that is why Bin Laden’s capture will take place a short time before Bush’s term ends. The proceeding administration will still continue to deal with Al-Qaeda and terrorist attacks but they will be thankful for the detainment of Bin Laden.
The US government claims that they cannot pinpoint the exact location of Bin Laden. They only manage to state that he is probably hiding in the rugged terrains between the borders of Afghanistan and Pakistan or that he is still in Tora Bora. Whether the US government is concealing information from the public is subject to much debate. Sooner or later, such conspiracy theories will be either confirmed or refuted.
For now, there is reason to believe that delaying Bin Laden’s capture is a strategic decision taken by the Bush Administration.
posted by The Egyptian Observer at 11:59 AM
4 Comments:
My bet is that America is lost. Europe is lost. Israel is also lost. Game over unless the Russians and Chinese pick the right side.
@Anonymous. Please elaborate more on your point.
Which sides are you referring to here? The terrorists and the US'?
I do agree that China and Russia are integral in helping the West combat terrorism.
It is certainly in the interest of the Russians to support the US in this case since they themselves have to deal with Chechen rebels and Muslim extremism.
The Chinese will also help however their priority is fixated on trade and development at this point. They view the US as a lucrative trading partner which has brought them foreign direct investment and improved their balance of payments. Nonetheless, their role in combating terrorism is crucial.
For now, there is reason to believe that delaying Bin Laden’s capture is a strategic decision taken by the Bush Administration
If only it was that simple!
@gbaikie. That is certainly the most 'legitimate' way to keep America in the forefront on the war against terrorism.
Stemming from that point, since the tech 'bubble burst' and the repercussions of 9/11, the US economy has been quite shaky. There is an extensive range of literature which argues that increases in government spending incites growth.
The US government has spent a ridiculous amount of money on defense by using the war on terrorism as its justification. By invading Iraq and Afghanistan and by providing funds to allies to support their cause, government expenditure has reached phenomenal levels.
This could certainly be another reason to stay engaged in the war against terrorism and moreover to not capture Bin Laden - yet.
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