Iran and Its Clandestine Nuclear Program Or Not?
At recent talks in Vienna, the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog said he was hopeful that a deal with Iran and the Western powers is still feasible.
The problem is simple. The West is accusing Iran of using its uranium enrichment program to develop nuclear weapons while Iran is refuting such a claim. Tehran insists that it has the right to develop its nuclear sector to produce energy for civilian purposes.
As of now, there is no substantial evidence to indict Iran on charges of having clandestine nuclear military operations. However, given President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s recent tirade against the United States and Israel, Western powers are anxious.
So why should several countries in the world have the right to develop nuclear weapons while others be restricted? Today, there are eight countries which possess nuclear weapons: 1) United States, 2) Russia, 3) United Kingdom, 4) France, 5) China, 6) India, 7) Pakistan and 8) North Korea.
Of the countries listed above, both Pakistan and India refused to sign the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) whereas all other countries have signed and agreed to restrict their number of nuclear weapons. However, given the nature of Mutually Assured Destructed (MAD), the United States is not worried that neither Pakistan nor India will use a nuclear weapon against one another. MAD assures that a country with a second-strike capability will be able to obliterate its opponent.
In essence, in the case of India-Pakistan, the presence of nuclear weapons on both sides has guaranteed that warfare would only be conducted conventionally. Russia, France and the United Kingdom are all prime allies of the United States and China is a strong trading partner. The only country from the list (like Iran) which the United States fears is North Korea.
The United States believes that both North Korea and Iran are irrational state actors. Such an assessment is made based on perception and intelligence. In the case of Iran, Ahmadinejad’s public outcry against the West has exacerbated the US’ notion that the country is an irrational actor. North Korea would have a motive to use its nuclear weapons against its arch rival South Korea. Iran would use nuclear weapons against Israel or use them as political tools to gain concessions or for blackmail purposes.
Perception is critical and if Iran is to really prove to the West that it does not plan to implement a nuclear military program then Iranian figureheads and especially Ahmadinejad should halt their public ranting. The ranting and critical remarks only give the West more reason to believe that the country has malicious intents.
For now, there is no proof that Iran possess a clandestine program, it is easy given the current perceptions to believe that is the case. Iran doesn’t deserve to possess nuclear weapons unless it can prove to the international community that it has no offensive and dangerous intentions. However, given the extremist nature of Shiaism, the radicalism of Ahmadinejad and Iran’s tumultuous past it will be very difficult at this point to relieve any doubts.
The problem is simple. The West is accusing Iran of using its uranium enrichment program to develop nuclear weapons while Iran is refuting such a claim. Tehran insists that it has the right to develop its nuclear sector to produce energy for civilian purposes.
As of now, there is no substantial evidence to indict Iran on charges of having clandestine nuclear military operations. However, given President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s recent tirade against the United States and Israel, Western powers are anxious.
So why should several countries in the world have the right to develop nuclear weapons while others be restricted? Today, there are eight countries which possess nuclear weapons: 1) United States, 2) Russia, 3) United Kingdom, 4) France, 5) China, 6) India, 7) Pakistan and 8) North Korea.
Of the countries listed above, both Pakistan and India refused to sign the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) whereas all other countries have signed and agreed to restrict their number of nuclear weapons. However, given the nature of Mutually Assured Destructed (MAD), the United States is not worried that neither Pakistan nor India will use a nuclear weapon against one another. MAD assures that a country with a second-strike capability will be able to obliterate its opponent.
In essence, in the case of India-Pakistan, the presence of nuclear weapons on both sides has guaranteed that warfare would only be conducted conventionally. Russia, France and the United Kingdom are all prime allies of the United States and China is a strong trading partner. The only country from the list (like Iran) which the United States fears is North Korea.
The United States believes that both North Korea and Iran are irrational state actors. Such an assessment is made based on perception and intelligence. In the case of Iran, Ahmadinejad’s public outcry against the West has exacerbated the US’ notion that the country is an irrational actor. North Korea would have a motive to use its nuclear weapons against its arch rival South Korea. Iran would use nuclear weapons against Israel or use them as political tools to gain concessions or for blackmail purposes.
Perception is critical and if Iran is to really prove to the West that it does not plan to implement a nuclear military program then Iranian figureheads and especially Ahmadinejad should halt their public ranting. The ranting and critical remarks only give the West more reason to believe that the country has malicious intents.
For now, there is no proof that Iran possess a clandestine program, it is easy given the current perceptions to believe that is the case. Iran doesn’t deserve to possess nuclear weapons unless it can prove to the international community that it has no offensive and dangerous intentions. However, given the extremist nature of Shiaism, the radicalism of Ahmadinejad and Iran’s tumultuous past it will be very difficult at this point to relieve any doubts.
posted by The Egyptian Observer at 9:52 PM
2 Comments:
@Egypeter. I am more inclined to agree with your comment at this point.
I did sugar coat intentionally so as to not jump the gun. I would like to wait and see whether Ahmadinejad has a more grandiose scheme except bash the US and the West.
I do believe that he must possess an essence of rationality and not pure dementia. Everything is said and done for a strategic reason and perceptions play a huge role in decision-making and diplomacy.
The outcome of Iran and its nuclear program might give a little more headway as to the intentions of Ahmadinejad and Iran's role in the Middle East.
Its a matter of time.
The Iranian Shihab rockets only make sense if they are intended to carry non-conventional, more specifically nuclear, warheads.
As a signatary to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (unlike, say, India and Pakistan) is not just undesirable politically that Iran have nuclear weapons; its against a law they themselves have accepted.
In political terms, no one in his or her right mind should wish for co-existence with a nuclear Iran -- certainly not you guys in Egypt.
And yes, with some countries nuclear and other non-conventional weaponry is more aceeptable than with others. Political system, track record, stated intent all matter. Its not the same thing if thugs and criminals or decent folk have guns.
Michael, Germany
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